Marchex, Inc. Message Board

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Non-Tech : Marchex, Inc.

MCHX 1.767

+1.6%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: playavermont who wrote (57)	9/24/2004 10:01:13 AM
From: playavermont	Read Replies (1) of 159

Assuming $75 Million in 2005 revenues. Assuming $9 Million in 2005 operating profit. At $12 per share their current 2005 PROJECTED ratios: Price to Sales: 4 Price to Book: 6 P/E: 33 The ratios based on TRAILING 12 months are: Price to sales: 10 Price to Book: 10+/- P/E: 100 +/- As you can see the market is looking ahead. Based on the trailing ratios a case could be made that it is a $6 or $7 stock. BUT, looking out one year the case could be made that it is worth a MINIMUM of $12 in 2005. In one year the market MAY be looking at a possible $135+ Million revenue company in 2006. At that time Marchex will most likely have a greater following, a longer track record, etc. An expansion of the ratios would most likely be in order (depending on the overall market conditions at the time). Thus, in September/October of 2005 - projecting out to 2006 a $135 Million revenue company with $25 Million in operating profits (18% operating margins): Price to sales of 6 Price to book of 8 P/E of 40 Assuming 35 to 38 Million shares outstanding these ratios would mean a stock price of $22 to $28 per share in one year.

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