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Technology Stocks : Supply Chain Management Software

MANU 15.86

-1.0%

Dec 26 9:30 AM EST

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To: JJ who wrote (70)	8/26/1997 9:17:00 PM
From: LarryS	of 86

JJ...The positive news is we had a .06 profit this quarter vs a .05 loss last year, and a 20% gain over estimated earnings. These earnings show AMSWA has turned the corner and has become profitable again. But....we had an increase of 56% in license fees. Many of us were expecting approx 100% because last year was so bad and because Manu & Itwo reported 100% increases in their last earning reports (I think this is right, the posters from manu and itwo can correct me if I'm wrong). Also the .01 over projected earnings was accomplished not only by the increase in the revenue but also because of a sizeable gain achieved in short term investments. Also add to this the uncertainity of what spinning off Logility means to the shareholders and in the short term some of our investors are a little nervous. When the early price jumped to $12 many investors, especially day traders and momentum players got out. After all we were sitting at $7 in late July and $5 in April. With the weak market today (and past few days continuing into the near future) some took their 50-100% gain and left. Still AMSWA is a leader in this profitable niche of the market, which should continue for several years. They did have a 56% gain in license fee and 39% overall which most companies I invest in would find quite satisfactory. I believe we will fluxuate between 10 1/2 and 13 as we get near the next earnings report. With good earnings the price should go to 15, with great earnings 18-20. Where else could you get a 25-100% gain in a quarter????

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