ROTFLOL hey rejek, everyone is listening in Florida.
CAMPAIGN 2004 | FLORIDA
Bush bypasses Kerry in poll
A poll showed President Bush ahead of Democratic challenger Sen. John Kerry. In the U.S. Senate race Democrat Betty Castor and Republican Mel Martinez are in a dead heat.
BY MARC CAPUTO AND LESLEY CLARK
mcaputo@herald.com
Hurricanes Charley, Frances and Ivan may count as some of the biggest political contributors to President Bush's reelection campaign, according to a poll.
The post-hurricane survey shows Bush surging ahead of his Democratic challenger by 49 to 41 percent -- an about-face from August, when Bush trailed Sen. John Kerry 41-47 percent, Quinnipiac University reported Thursday.
''The ill winds of the hurricanes have blown some political goodwill for President Bush,'' said Clay F. Richards, a pollster for the independent Connecticut university.
''You can't underestimate the impact of a president coming down and promising all this federal aid to people who need it,'' said Richards, noting that Bush toured hurricane-ravaged parts of Florida three times. ``It's like Rudy Giuliani at ground zero on 9/11. The commander in chief is there, on the ground, saying help is on the way.''
The poll of 819 registered voters was conducted Sept. 18 to 21 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
Though pollsters have debated whether accurate polls can be conducted in Florida, given widespread power outages and a sense that politicking has largely been on hold, the poll provides some of the first evidence that Bush may be aided by appearing as the comforter in chief. Some strategists have suggested, though, that the president could be wounded if federal relief efforts falter.
But the survey also reflects the contradictory nature of polling. Other recent Florida polls suggest a much closer race. The American Research Group has the two almost tied.
A CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll scheduled for late release Thursday shows Bush at 49 percent and Kerry at 46 percent among likely voters. The error margin is 4 percentage points.
Quinnipiac, which normally polls 1,000 people, said it had trouble this month after the remnants of Hurricane Ivan swamped the Connecticut campus, shutting off power for a day.
TELEPHONE SURVEY
Richards expressed confidence in the telephone poll because they hit their respondent target in every region and because it reflected general voting patterns -- such as large support for the Republican in the Panhandle. The main shift in support, he said, was among independents, one of the more fickle voting groups.
While the hurricanes appear to have boosted Bush, they've drowned out what many observers say is the nation's second most important race: Florida's U.S. Senate campaign, which is tightly wed to the battle for the White House.
U.S. SENATE RACE
Democrat Betty Castor and Republican Mel Martinez are in a dead heat, according to the poll, the first major survey since the candidates emerged from their bruising Aug. 31 primary fights.
Four in 10 Florida voters say they haven't heard enough about the two to decide. And just 16 percent say they've paid ''a lot of attention'' to the Senate race, while 55 percent say they've closely watched the presidential race.
Castor, a former state education commissioner, nurses a minuscule lead over the former Bush housing secretary, leading him 43 percent to 42 percent.
The CNN poll shows a wider race: Castor leads 51 percent among likely voters to Martinez's 45 percent. Still, after factoring in the polls' error margin, the race is basically dead even.
A Martinez spokeswoman said the poll numbers suggest that he isn't hurt by the fact that he hasn't been a statewide office holder, while Castor has.
''This is a woman who from her own mouth thinks she's an incumbent because she's held statewide office. And it's still a dead heat,'' Martinez spokeswoman Jennifer Coxe said.
WAR ON TERRORISM
Coxe said Martinez, whose campaign has become a stand-in for the president's, is better positioned to win because the race is about fighting terrorism.
The Quinnipiac poll shows that, for the first time, Florida voters consider the war on terrorism to be more important than the economy. Richards attributes the shift in opinion to the storm-related paranoia of voters who ``no longer feel safe in their own homes.''
Castor decided to define herself before Martinez could, and recently ran a television ad to insulate her from charges that, when she was president of the University of South Florida, she failed to fire Sami al Arian, a professor accused aiding terrorists. Castor said she did more to punish the professor than the president, who later campaigned with Arian and invited him to the White House before he was indicted.
Martinez says there's little basis for the implication that Bush was soft on the accused terrorist, and said Castor should have fired Arian, not put him on paid leave.
But Castor spokesman Matt Burgess dismissed Martinez's defense of Bush as coming from a presidential apparatchik.
''Betty Castor is going to be an independent senator, who will support any president when he's right. And when he's wrong, she won't,'' Burgess said. ``She's running in the tradition of Bob Graham.''
JOB-APPROVAL RATINGS
The new poll indicates it's a smart move to identify with Graham, Florida's outgoing senator. The senior statesman's job approval rating is 59 percent. He had the highest such rating before storms beclouded the Sunshine State.
Now, Gov. Jeb Bush's job-approval rating is 62 percent -- a 17-point jump from last month. A whopping 87 percent of respondents said they approve of the governor's response to the hurricanes; 78 percent approve of his brother's response.
The result is that President Bush leads in almost every category, including one crucial for Democrats: women.
AN ERODING BASE?
Forty-six percent of them say they'd vote for Bush, compared to 43 percent for Kerry. That's a virtual reversal from last month when Kerry led in that category, and it's a reflection of national polls that suggest the reliable Democratic base is eroding.
Kerry sought to address that gap Wednesday, telling an audience of seniors in West Palm Beach that women would be most affected by the Bush administration's suggestion to privatize Social Security.
''Our mothers, our grandmothers are the first ones hurt when benefits go down,'' he said.
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