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Politics : Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Kerry
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To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (50343)9/27/2004 4:22:48 PM
From: CalculatedRiskRead Replies (1) of 81568
 
Kenneth, my friends in Oregon and New Mexico say their internal polling shows Kerry will win. They are baffled (as am I) by these other polls. Nevada is still a toss-up.

I don't know about the other states. But remember the Gallup poll showed Bush winning the popular vote by 13% in 2000 with less than 1 week to go. Since Gore won the popular vote, their polling methods are obviously questionable.

FROM: October 27, 2000
Web posted at: 8:36 p.m. EDT (0036 GMT)

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Republican presidential nominee George W. Bush holds a 49-to-43 percent edge over Democratic rival Al Gore in the latest CNN/Time poll, conducted Wednesday and Thursday.

The poll of 2,060 adult Americans, including 1,076 likely voters, has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points and is thus in essential agreement with a CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll also released Friday. That poll gives Bush a 52 percent-39 percent edge over Gore. More important, both polls show the same snapshot of the current state of the presidential campaign: a solid advantage for Bush.

ABC News and The Washington Post both have daily tracking polls today putting the race at 48 percent for Bush and 45 percent for Gore. The latest Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby tracking poll has the contest at 45 percent for Gore and 43 percent for Bush.
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