As you pour over the internet looking for and praying for, oops, I doubt your side of the aisle prays unless a political advantage is to be gained, anyway, as you search the net hoping to find a link to a poll that shows Kerry has a chance of getting any state electoral votes, hope is fulfilled by your little poll results.
Meanwhile mainstream sources across the country show Bush up by at least 8.
Poll Shows Bush With Solid Lead
43 minutes ago
By Dan Balz and Vanessa Williams, Washington Post Staff Writers
President Bush (news - web sites) heads into the first presidential debate with a solid lead over John F. Kerry, boosted by the perception that he is a stronger leader with a clearer vision, despite deep concerns about Iraq (news - web sites) and the pace of the economic recovery, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News Poll and interviews with voters in battleground states
Bush's relentless attacks on Kerry have badly damaged the Democratic nominee, the survey and interviews showed. Voters routinely describe Kerry as wishy-washy, as a flip-flopper and as a candidate they are not sure they can trust, almost as if they are reading from Bush campaign ad scripts. But Kerry's problems are also partly of his own making. Despite repeated efforts to flesh out his proposals on Iraq, terrorism and other issues, he has yet to break through to undecided voters as someone who has clear plans for fixing the country's biggest problems.
Bush remains a polarizing figure, strongly admired by his supporters and despised by partisans on the left. Some swing voters who disagree with his policies nonetheless see him as a confident leader and express reluctance to vote him out of office in the middle of the struggle against terrorism, unless Kerry convinces them that he can do a better job.
Among those voters who dislike Bush's policies and are still making up their minds, the three presidential debates may offer Kerry his last opportunity to show them that he has what they are looking for in a president.
Jim Vyvyan, a high school teacher from Union Grove, Wis., said his and his wife's decisions are likely to hinge on the debates, which begin Thursday in Miami with a discussion of foreign policy. Vyvyan opposed the Iraq war from the beginning and does not believe the upbeat appraisals of conditions there from Bush and Iraq's interim prime minister, Ayad Allawi. But he harbors strong doubts about Kerry.
"Actually I would have voted for Kerry three months ago, but he's not improved or not shown his positions any more clearly in the last three months than he did a year ago," Vyvyan said. "I think he's trying to be everything to everybody, and you just can't."
Americans remain deeply divided over Bush's presidency. As many are dissatisfied with the direction of the country as are satisfied (49 percent each), according to the Post-ABC poll, and overall those surveyed give the president identical negative marks on his handling of Iraq and the economy.
Forty-seven percent approve of the job Bush is doing on the economy and on Iraq, with 50 percent saying they disapprove. After two weeks of bad news from Iraq that has included the beheadings of two Americans, more U.S. casualties and continued bombings, a narrow majority (51 percent to 46 percent) once again says the war was not worth fighting. Only on his handling of terrorism does Bush receive strongly positive marks, with 59 percent approving and 38 percent disapproving.
Voters in the battlegrounds of Pennsylvania, Missouri and Wisconsin gave voice to the concerns recorded in those poll numbers.
Trina Moss, 47, a single mother from Wilkes-Barre, Pa., lost her job of 25 years last month when the company she worked for closed down. She will vote Democratic for the first time since she was 18. "I don't care what Bush is saying -- he's lying," she said. "I saw what was happening to this economy. It really didn't hit me until it happened to me. . . . I feel so strongly that Bush is responsible for the factory closing, because of outsourcing, that I've signed up to help the Kerry campaign get out the vote."
Stacey Waechter, 25, lives in the St. Louis suburbs. A student who is a part-time caregiver, Waechter worries about a lack of access to health care and what she sees as a shrinking middle class. "We have such problems in our community," she said, "homeless people, single mothers -- that until we deal with these issues going on here . . . how can we fix another country?"
Don Hoffmeister, 72, a retiree who lives in the Milwaukee suburb of Brown Deer, Wis., said he has become disillusioned over Iraq, though he supported the U.S. invasion. "It's gone on way too long," he said. "There are very optimistic comments out of our president and every day there's more Americans being killed, aren't there?" He added, sarcastically: "I don't follow this very closely, but supposedly the war is over and we have won, right? Right!"
Despite these concerns, Bush leads Kerry in a hypothetical ballot test, 51 percent to 45 percent among likely voters, in the new poll, with independent Ralph Nader (news - web sites) at 1 percent. In the previous Post-ABC News poll, taken in the week after the Republican National Convention, Bush led Kerry 52 percent to 43 percent among likely voters. Among registered voters, the new poll shows Bush ahead 51 percent to 44 percent, virtually unchanged from a few weeks ago.
Bush holds a double-digit lead among men (53 percent to 41 percent) and a narrow lead among women (49 percent to 46 percent). Four years ago, Al Gore (news - web sites) carried the female vote by 11 percentage points, and Kerry advisers know he must do much better among women to win the election.
Bush's overall approval rating stands at 50 percent in the poll, about where it has been for the past two months, after dipping as low as 47 percent in the late spring.
The poll was conducted by telephone Sept. 23 to 26 among 1,204 randomly selected adults nationwide, including 969 self-identified registered voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.
Five weeks before the election, interest in the campaign is extraordinarily high, with 87 percent of those surveyed saying they are following it either very or somewhat closely. Four years ago at this point, about a quarter said they were following the campaign very closely; the new poll shows that 48 percent are following it very closely. Two in three voters said this election is one of the most important in their lifetimes.
Bush has built his lead by besting Kerry in voters' perceptions of the two men's attributes and on their impressions of who is best equipped to handle the big issues facing the country. Voters say Bush rather than Kerry is better able by double-digit margins to deal with Iraq and terrorism and by lesser margins the economy and relations with other countries. Kerry holds a narrow lead on creating jobs.
Majorities say Bush is a strong leader, has taken a clear stand on issues, has an appealing personality and will make the country safer. A plurality gives Bush the edge on who is honest and trustworthy and who "shares your values," while the two receive roughly equal marks on who understands "the problems of people like you." A majority (55 percent) said Bush is too willing to take risks.
A majority of voters said Bush and Kerry have both offered clear plans on the economy, but on Iraq and terrorism, voters gave Bush far better marks. Three in five (62 percent) said Bush has a clear plan for fighting terrorism, but fewer than two in five (36 percent) said the same of Kerry. On Iraq, 53 percent said Bush has a plan to deal with the insurgency there, while 38 percent said Kerry has a plan. The polling came at the end of a week in which Kerry delivered major speeches outlining his plans for both Iraq and terrorism.
Interviews with voters produced widely varying impressions of Bush. "I can't think of anything I don't like about George Bush (news - web sites)," said Janice Bauman, who was sitting outside her Brown Deer home Saturday morning. At the other end of the spectrum was Alan Rowlson of St. Louis, who said: "I hate Bush. I would never vote for Bush. I think he's evil."
In the poll, the economy rates as the number one problem on voters' minds. Those who cite the economy as the top issue go heavily for Kerry, 59 percent to 34 percent. "I believe in a strong security and military, but I also believe that we should focus on what's going on here at home," said Cassie Polchek, 23, of Wilkes-Barre. Saying she will register and vote, she added: "I think it's time we start looking at what's going on in this country and time the candidates stop talking only about Iraq, unless they talk about how they're going to make it all work."
Although terrorism rates slightly higher than Iraq among national security issues, voters interviewed were more anxious to talk about Iraq. Bush supporters said they continue to have confidence in him despite the problems there. "He's had multiple opportunities to back away from the war, but he believed it was the right thing to do and he went for it," said Sam Ingerman, 23, who was taking a break from his job as a waiter in the St. Louis suburbs.
Anthony Hinrichs, 33, and his wife, Rachelle, 34, who live in St. Louis County, usually cancel out each other's votes: He supports Democrats, and she backs Republicans. In this election, he is firmly opposed to Bush, primarily because of the war. He believes that Bush launched the war without good cause, and he is "even more against it now" because no weapons of mass destruction have been found. But he is not enamored of Kerry. "I would have voted for Gore again more happily," he said.
Rachelle Hinrichs said she is still making up her mind, to the surprise of her husband. She is bothered by Bush's environmental policies, described his tax cuts as silly and worries about Iraq because she does not want her brother, who already served there, to go back. But she described Kerry as someone who "keeps trying to act like a man of the people, but he's not like us."
Bush's supporters are far more energized, with 61 percent saying they are very enthusiastic about voting for him, compared with 39 percent of Kerry supporters who said the same thing. Kerry's supporters were much more enthusiastic about him just after the Democratic convention but have cooled since then.
Mel Culp was waiting for his wife at the Mayfair Mall in Wauwatosa, Wis., Saturday when he was asked about his vote in November. Culp is a McCain Republican who supported Gore in 2000. He is worried about the impact of outsourcing on the high-tech industry and, as one who served in the Navy for 25 years, believes the credibility of Bush's Iraq advisers is "pretty well shot."
But when it comes to his vote, Culp said he is undecided because Kerry has not articulated positions he finds meaningful. "His biggest card right now is the 'anybody but Bush' card, and I'm not there yet," he said. "We'll see how it sorts itself out."
Staff writer Evelyn Nieves, polling director Richard Morin and senior polling analyst Christopher Muste contributed to this report. |
