Marc & SXB:
Back from the links: To repeat myself from an earlier post, I am not anywhere near the technical level occupied by the brighter minds of this thread like Ibexx, Jeff, Gregory, BP, Trufflett just to name "only" a few. I am a long term trader only, but I have a very good sense about the overall movement in stocks. Our posters on this thread and on others say much more than they are really aware of. They are bright and incisive as they get into the fine details of speed, chip sets, enbedded memory, architecture and a whole host of other very important information and details. As they share, convert and contend, they say so much more to anyone paying attention to the conversation. My own small contribution is to occasionally keep the ball in the court as it relates to perspective and staying away from "Irrational Exuberance". That said:
I owned SNDK as an IPO and was disappointed with its lack of price action, unless you make money on the downside. Is it another CISCO? I don't think so, but it does have a similarity to Rambus. It has the patents for specialized flash memory data storage products. I heard their president speak in January of 96' He said that he would continue to lower its prices to a point where any competitors getting into the market would encounter prohibitive costs for new design and patents, which would leave them so far behind they could never become viable threats. I believe that he has accomplished this. In fact, most of their memory products have the name of the seller on it rather than Sandisk's. A great little company, but a CISCO I don't think so. Worth owning? IMHO Yes. Also, you should absolutely own CISCO.
Re: Rambus, is it a CISCO, is it a time to buy? I believe that we need a little more time to determine if it's in the same class as CISCO was in its earlier history. Its metal needs to be tested. I do sense that it's in a very special class of its own with patents and the increasing acceptance of its product as an industry standard. It's not the only game in town, but increasingly, it seems to be winning control of most of the marbles. If this continues and it will, then eventually, if you want to play the game, it will be by their rules.
Is it time to buy? We have been talking about the "Locked-Up Shares" for some time and we saw what the release of a few of them can do to the market- down $19. As we move closer to November, we should be concerned with the release of these remaining shares. I talked with friends in this area, who feel that it would be reasonable to expect a decrease in share price as the release time nears. From what price level will it move downward? They also feel that there will be a significant movement upward after the release. Another very respected venture capitalist in technology feels that Rambus will be huge in three years. It's my sense they will all be right, it's just the time frame we should be considering.
It's a tough call and it depends directly upon your personal tolerance for risk. As we get closer, I sense that our thread will become more occupied with the Release Date effects than it will with band width and speed. Stay tuned.
Regards,
Linkster |
