I think I will just hold PAL for a while, though I could take short etrm profits because it's in an IRA.
I am trying to structure the IRA around two basic premises--that stocks are overvalued and commodities are undervalued. I have changed over from BEARX to GRZZX and RYVNX. I really like the fidelity with which RYVNX tracks 200% the inverse of NDX, but I have residual fears of counter-party default in the event of a 1987-style market break. GRZZX is just plain short positions, but it behaves erratically because the managers are making their own picks that sometimes work and sometimes do not work.
I like the PAL position because the PIMCO fund has nothing in it to track Palladium. I also have TimberWest to add lumber exposure, although lumber seems to be tanking big time despite all the plywood sailing around in the air in Florida. I also have added extra metal exposure via Inco, Teck Cominco, and Northern Orion. Building a position in Oil Sands Split, which could be a truly huge, leveraged, winner, eventually walking off not only with capital appreciation but with all increases in distributions from Canadian Oil Sands Trust. It's a great way to get margin power inside an IRA.
My really big story over the past year is outside the IRA, however, Energy Split. Up almost 30% plus about 15% tax free distributions so far. A cold winter and the growing discovery by U. S. investors of energy royalty trusts (recently featured in Fortune Magazine) could send this thing up a lot more before it terminates in September 2006. |
