Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Taikun who wrote (53814)	9/29/2004 5:48:22 AM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (1) of 74559

Hi Taikun, This guy, Petrov, predicts "China's Great Depression" comparing it to the American depression of the 30's. The reasons for the latter were 1. Speculative boom in the stock market. Stocks could be bought on 10% down basis. If it went up 2% you made 20%, often in a day or two. The bubble burst but the reaction was: 2. Building a tariff wall against imports. The result was the bad effects spread to other countries then boomeranging against the US economy. The so-titled Smoot-Hawley tariffs. I don't think you can buy stocks in China with 10% down. Also China, as the lowest cost producer of most things that Chinese people need,(except oil,etc. of course) can't feel generally threatened by imports. Maybe there will be a depression in China but the arguments for it are not obvious.

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