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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 55.28

+5.3%

Nov 17 3:59 PM EST

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To: tom pope who wrote (13213)	9/29/2004 10:26:19 PM
From: former_pgs	Read Replies (2) of 52153

You probably need to look out to late 1H05 at the earliest for news on Telcyta. The current ovarian cancer trial (assist-1) running telcyta against doxil / hycamtin is expected to complete enrollment in the 4th quarter, and given the event-driven analysis, it is unlikely to be mature until mid-2005. I believe this trial is on a faster track than their second pivotal trial in NSCLC versus Iressa (assist-2). There is some expectation that the soon-to-be started phase III trial in ovarian cancer testing carbo+telcyta versus doxil in patients who have failed carbo may be completed on a similar time frame as the assist-1 trial... it is expected to look at complete response / durable response rate rather than survival, so the follow-up duration may be a little shorter but also perhaps a bit more difficult to time. Best bet to time a data release is to wait for the announcement of the completion of assist-1 enrollment. Following that, the control arm is expected to have a median survival of 24-28 weeks, giving you a better window to try and time the data release.

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