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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Square_Dealings who wrote (19193)9/30/2004 8:48:48 AM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
More and more signs of a USD rout developing. Notice how bonds immediately rally on these dollar swoons, Asian money printing and currency intervention. But the inflationary money creation is immediately leaking into higher metal, energy and commodity prices. I think this is getting towards the terminal phase of my crack up boom, Train Wreck theory.
financialsense.com

I'm thinking out loud about what price level of say copper or nickel or oil, collapses the Chinese/Asian economy? We won't really know, because there's no transparency out of China. Thailand has transparency and may offer clues about what's happening over there. So if we go parabolic on these key commodites, leading to a bust, what non-commodity foreign currencies would do well in the bust, post-bust phase? Gold as money might make sense for sure, what about Swiss Francs, Singapore? I just don't have the conceptual depth on currencies that I do on commodites, but things could unfold fast and need to start thinking a few chess moves ahead.

Good related essay on this. Towards the end Petrov gives five possible triggers of the Asian depression. Could be any or a combination of them, but I think (4) and (5) are the most likely:
prudentbear.com
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