"The 9 point one was from ABC. Their polls have been pretty darn accurate in the past."
What you left out was that ABC also asked in that poll for whom the participants would vote if the election were held today. Both candidates gained one point from the previous ABC numbers, Bush going to 51% from 50% and Kerry going to 47% from 46%.
What matters is not who the people watching thought "won" the debate, but rather whether the debate changed any minds. It seems, from this quick 500 and some person poll, that it didn't really change any minds. A few people climbed (for now anyway) off the fence, with equal numbers coming down on each side, but the spread remains the same - Bush with the lead (and a majority - when was the last time an actual majority elected a President?).
BTW, personally, I thought Kerry handled himself well, but that Bush did as well. They were both appropriately polite and had no demeaner problems (no heavy sighs, watch gazing or sweaty foreheads) or real gaffs. It is also pretty clear where they disagree - particularly clear regarding how to proceed with North Korea, and surprisingly "substantive" as several of the ABC folkes noted.
Kerry is, however, still going with the "wrong war, wrong time, wrong place" theme. I thought Bush hit him well on the issue of the message his position, together with his denigration of our coalition partners and the Iraqi PM, sends to our allies (including those Kerry says he can recruit to our side), to the American people, to the Iraqi people, and to the terrorists. Further, since his two page "plan" lists mostly things Bush is already doing, Kerry's justification for voters to pick him over Bush to handle Iraq going forward appears to be "I'd just do it better." Not much of a foreign policy platform to run on, IMO.
But back to "who won?", the winner is the one who picks up the most voters. So far, that makes it a tie. |
