NEWS ANALYSIS
By Richard S. Dunham
Kerry Lands the First Punch
After slip-sliding through the late summer of Campaign '04, John Kerry finally regained solid footing in the first Presidential debate. In the Sept. 30 foreign policy clash at the University of Miami, the Massachusetts senator scored some points with his repeated attacks on President Bush's Iraq policy and played pretty good defense when it came to explaining his various positions on the invasion and its aftermath. Advertisement
Kerry's solid performance is unlikely to move him into the lead, but it should convince some wavering Democrats and independents who have abandoned him in the past two months to give him a closer look.
"COLOSSAL ERROR." Bush appeared hesitant at times but was emphatic when he repeated his main point of the debate: Kerry was sending mixed messages to the world, to Iraqi allies, and to U.S. troops in harm's way by changing positions on the efficacy of the war that has cost more than 1,000 American lives and $200 billion in taxes. "I don't see how you can lead this country to succeed in Iraq if you say wrong war, wrong time, wrong place," Bush argued. "No, the way to win this is to be steadfast and resolved and to follow through on the plan that I've just outlined."
To make sure voters fully understood the point, Bush repeated it, in various formulations, more than a dozen times during the 90-minute encounter. Clearly, Republican see the "flip-flop" issue as a fatal Kerry character flaw.
But the challenger gave up no ground, pounding Bush for a "colossal error in judgment." The Democrat was at his best toward the end of the joint appearance when the President reminded viewers that Kerry agreed with him about the danger posed by Saddam Hussein.
HIGH STAKES. "That's not the issue," Kerry shot back. "The issue is what you do about it. The President said he was going to build a true coalition, exhaust the remedies of the U.N., and go to war as a last resort.... Now we have this incredible mess in Iraq -- [at a cost of] $200 billion. It's not what the American people thought they were getting when [Congress] voted." It was perhaps the most succinct position on Iraq Kerry has given in his two-year Presidential campaign.
Kerry's performance is all the more impressive because the debate played to Bush's perceived strengths: defense and homeland security. Two panels of voters interviewed by the independent American Research Group both thought Kerry had won the debate: 52% to 42%, and 51% to 41%. An ABC News instant poll gave Kerry a 45% to 36% edge. A CBS poll showed a 44% to 26% Kerry win, with 30% calling it a draw. And a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll showed an even-bigger margin, 53% to 37%.
Kerry's team realizes the high stakes involved in the Iraq issue. While a majority of Americans disapprove of the President's handling of Iraq, they still think Bush would be better than Kerry at dealing with it. To overtake Bush, Kerry must communicate a complicated rationale for his Iraq positions -- something Republicans say is impossible to do. Senior Kerry adviser Joe Lockhart says the candidate must get voters to focus on his explanation. "If they [voters] don't take the minute to listen, then maybe we lose," acknowledges Lockhart.
"NOBLE AND WORTHY." The President also patently targeted some of his remarks to reach a demographic he sometimes has trouble wooing: women, in particular suburban mothers. He pointed out that of the 10 million Afghan citizens who are registered to vote, 41% are female. Perhaps mindful that pollsters like Democrat Celinda Lake have found that American women were deeply disturbed by the images emerging from the terrorist attack in Russia, Bush warned that the terrorists who "kill here [also] kill children in Russia...attack unmercifully Iraq, hoping to shake our will."
And in one of his more effective responses of the night, the President relayed how he had comforted the widow of a soldier who died in Iraq: "I told her after we prayed and teared up and laughed some that I thought her husband's sacrifice was noble and worthy."
But even the most loyal Bush spinners wouldn't argue that the President had put Kerry away. "I think the race probably stays the way it was," says senior Bush strategist Matthew Dowd. "Us with a slight advantage."
White House political guru Karl Rove strongly disputed the instant polls showing most Americans preferring Kerry's Sept. 30 performance. "Remember four years ago, the same thing happened," Rove told reporters. "People said Gore won the debate. Well, it turned out Bush won the debate and the election. And the same thing is going to happen this time."
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