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Politics : Foreign Policy Discussion Thread

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To: teevee who wrote (6971)10/1/2004 3:40:18 PM
From: el_gaviero  Read Replies (1) of 15991
 
“..... this is yet another reason why the nuclear facilities must be destroyed and very soon. Also, this pre emptive strike before the election and against a member of the axis of evil would ensure Kerry's defeat.”

I suppose it is actually possible that you believe this.

Let me make a few predictions about what will happen if either Israel or the US strikes Iran.

1) No matter who actually does the dirty work, the Moslem world will correctly assume that the actual perpetrators are Israel AND the US.
2) Every wild notion of the Arabs about Zionism and Crusaders will turn out to be not paranoia but realism.
3) Iran will find ways to strike back, e.g.:
*** send agents across the border to help direct, supply and aid the insurgency in Iraq, ending any hope of a settlement there, and causing death and injury to many more Americans than would otherwise be the case.
****Beef up anti-Israel groups everywhere, such as the Hezbolla in Lebanon, etc., leading to the loss of more lives all around;
*** deploy the oil weapon by refusing to sell oil to Americans or to the West a la Saudi Arabia in 1973 --- or worse, find a way to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. Even if the Strait were shut down only intermittently, the consequences would be painful for the American economy.

In addition to what Iran can do, the effect of bombing Iran would spread like a tsunami, washing away every moderate governments in the region, leaving radicals and fundamentalists in charge

.... the moment Saudi Arabia goes, the rest of the oil goes, and the world finds itself short up to 30 million barrels a day...

.... the moment Pakistan goes, nukes appear in the hands of every government in the region .....

Is this what you want?
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