CDWN - Colonial Downs (1st Horse Track in VA since 1800s) Message Board

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Non-Tech : CDWN - Colonial Downs (1st Horse Track in VA since 1800s)

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To: dave luken who wrote (56)	8/27/1997 7:37:00 AM
From: H.J. Schellenberg	of 158

CDWN is NOT trading at 60 times next year's earnings. It is trading at 9.5 times next year's earnings. The stock is at $9.00, FY 98 estimate is .94 from three analysts. $9.00/.94 = 9.575 The stock is trading at about 24 times THIS year's earnings estimate, which the company will almost match in the first three quarters. Of the .34 cent estimate for this year, the first three quarters will probably be .12, .07, and .11(estimated). This equals .30, or 81% of the FY estimate. IMHO, the FY97 estimate will have to be raised after third quarter earnings are announced, probably to .42-.47 As far as the track is concerned, it is a small track which will make about 10% margin, versus other tracks were built too large and are money losers. The OTBs are a sure thing. They are a 90% margin operation and generate huge amounts of cash. The referendums in Fredericksburg and soon-to-be's in the Washington, DC area will add DOLLARS in earnings per fiscal year. Anyone who looks at this stock right now should be all over it as a probable 10-bagger in the next 2 years. The bottom line is that the stock is TOO cheap. It has a P/E of 24 with implied earnings growth of 300%.

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