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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)

ASND 212.50

+1.5%

Dec 24 12:59 PM EST

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To: Maverick who wrote (9777)	8/27/1997 8:26:00 AM
From: Sector Investor	of 61433

<< However, a recent Cowen survey of 28 ISPs serving over 7.8 MM subscribers points to a slowdown in subscriber growth and access concentrator spending. The expected median spending increases on an annualized basis is 44%, down from 70% in our last survey. Cisco has gained mindshare as an access concentrator vendor, with 14% of total mentions, compared to only 4% in our 11/96 survey.>> Only 28 ISPs surveyed out of several thousand in the world and they project a RAS slowdown for ASND? How much do you want to bet these are all U.S. ISPs? You can make numbers say anything (8 out of 10 doctors surveyed chose Bayer aspirin). Pick ones that CSCO is strong in and it can look like CSCO is gaining market share. Years ago when telephones were relatively new, a newspaper took a famous "telephone survey" and reported that the Republican Candidate for president would win in a landslide. After the Democrat won (don't remember which election), they relooked at the poll. It turned out that Republicans, being richer than the average Democrat had most of the installed phones, while few Democrats had them. The newspaper therefore actually surveyed Republicans to see who they thought would win! This Cowen "survey" sounds like the same kind of thing to me. This is a prime example of ANALysts at work.

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