Hello russwinter, regarding <<China ... Depression ... Towards the end Petrov gives five possible triggers of the Asian depression. Could be any or a combination of them, but I think (4) and (5) are the most likely:
prudentbear.com >>
I figure (a) Petrov must have meant "(4) the disappearance of Chinese trade [deficit, instead of] surpluses"
China's trade surplus is mostly and mainly with the US of A and hardly any other country. China makes necessities for the US of A. Net net China is effectively at balanced trade with the world.
Should China's surplus with the US of A disappear, the US of A must not need to wear shoes any more ;0)
China grows vegetables for Japan and has a trade deficit with Japan. Should the deficit worsen, must be because China is importing more Lexus SUVs or the Japanese have stopped eating sea weed and mushrooms.
So, not the USA and not Japan, that then must leave Europoe as the cause of China Depression (Poland or Nonaco)? or perhaps Africa (Zimbabwe or Egypt)?
(b) Petrov must not realize that "(5) an oil supply crisis" would be a good thing for the Chinese economy, since China surely does not need 100+ car assemblers, and could get by with fewer cars on the road, since the workers mostly live near their factories, should get healthier through bicycling, and do not have so many SUVs.
And then I thought worldmarket.blogspot.com
Chugs, Jay
P.S. I could make an arguement that the whole mess coming at us has little to do with economic cycles, but is more of an reversion-to-the-nasty-mean process that will see the standards of living decrease in certain locales and increase in other climes.
The politicians are too girly man to state the obvious, and the economist are too blind.
China Depression? a pebble on the highway to prosperity, nothing more. |
