I would be careful not to read too much into the Newsweek poll numbers. It has been my personal opinion that Bush had a five or six point lead going into the first debate. I suspect that it is now down to two or three points.
The September 11, 2004 Newsweek poll that gave Bush an eleven point lead was heavily weighted with Republicans. The new poll has a slight Democratic bias.
Message 20594570
Look at the makeup of Republicans vs. Democrats in Newsweek’s poll from September 11, 2004: NEWSWEEK POLL: Campaign 2004.
391 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
300 Democrats (plus or minus 7)
270 Independents (plus or minus 7)
Compare against the same data from the new poll, which Newsweek is using to claim that Bush’s poll lead has “evaporated:” NEWSWEEK POLL: First Presidential Debate.
345 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
364 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
278 Independents (plus or minus 7)
The current LA Times poll results suggest that Kerry's pickup was minimal (1%):
latimes.com
For instance, in last week's Times poll, Kerry trailed Bush among all registered voters by 49% to 45%. But the voters who watched the matchup preferred Kerry by 48% to 47% for Bush before the debate. After the debate, viewers divided nearly the same way, with 49% favoring Kerry, 47% Bush.
Today's Rasmussen poll results make the same point as the LA Times:
rasmussenreports.com
Presidential Tracking Poll: Bush-Kerry
Presidential Ballot
Bush 49.0%
Kerry 45.4%
Other 2.1%
Not Sure 3.7%
RasmussenReports.com
Sunday October 03, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 49% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 45%.
These results are based upon a survey of 3,000 Likely Voters conducted Thursday night, Friday night, and Saturday afternoon. As a result, just over two-thirds of the interviews were conducted following Thursday night's Presidential Debate.
Interviews conducted on Friday and Saturday show Kerry with a one-point bounce so far since the debate. However, in post-debate interviews, Bush still leads 49% to 46%.
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