i think slide 15 is a good indicator to watch for, i.e., when their economies start to overheat, foreign central banks will stop supporting the dollar. anywhere really bad spike in asia might be a good thing to trigger something, but japan is a good one to home-in on most of the time. if japan's interest rates on 10 yr govt. bonds (you can follow these easily on the futures markets each day) start moving up, you have your indicator in the bag imho. japan is the ultimate source of the low interest rates anyway with their decade long deflation and effectively 0% real interest rates.
as for your home builders i would say there is no reason to try to get out front on them. it is much better to wait for the longer term trend to Really change than to try to guess something will happen. i am sure you agree, but check kkd (not a builder i know) to see how many years that silly model took to finally break down. the shorts were right, but most of them did not make money. home builders will be the same way, and the trend once started won't stop. so you will get ample warning.
at the moment the market could actually blast off to the upside tomorrow or early this week. if that does not happen, this market could really get going the other way in a hurry. i am waiting to pull the trigger one way or the other. i suppose you weren't concerned about this short term stuff anyway.
if kasriel's disaster thing starts to happen, those who monitor the dollar, japanese rates, and us rates will at least get a heads-up. just some ideas. |
