Well those odds have narrowed some since the debate, as this story reports:
Bush's Lead Over Kerry in Futures Trading Narrows After Debate
Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush's lead over John Kerry in futures markets shrank by almost two-thirds after their debate last week.
Bush led by 12.5 percentage points on the Iowa Electronic Markets, a non-profit political betting system, as of 12:30 p.m. New York time. The Republican incumbent was 34 points ahead of Kerry, his Democratic challenger, the day before the Sept. 30 presidential debate.
``I anticipated some narrowing,'' said Randy Bateman, a Bush supporter and the chief investment officer at Huntington Capital Corp., overseeing $10 billion in Columbus, Ohio. ``I don't think the president did as well as he should have or could have.''
Bush's decline in futures trading mirrors a slide in opinion polls by the Los Angeles Times, Newsweek magazine and the Gallup Organization, as well as a Zogby International poll that said Kerry won the debate. The results may make tomorrow night's vice presidential debate, and the two remaining presidential debates, more important.
In 2000, then-Vice President Al Gore lost a 38-point lead over Bush in futures trading on the Iowa market after the first debate. The day of the November 2000 election, Bush held a 66- point advantage over Gore.
``The pattern is the same as 2000,'' said Thomas Rietz, a professor at the University of Iowa in Iowa City who helps run the futures market. ``2000 says it's not unprecedented'' that a candidate would lose a lead in a few weeks, he said.
Past Performance
Bush contracts were priced at 56.3 and Kerry at 43.8 on the university's market. The day before the debate, Bush stood at 67 and Kerry was at 33.
Bush's lead also narrowed in activity on Intrade.com, a Dublin-based electronic betting market. Futures that Bush will win re-election fell to 60.3 from 66 on Sept. 29, while Kerry contracts climbed to 41.3 from 36.
Winning contracts climb to 100, with Iowa's paying $1 each and Intrade's yielding $10. Losing contracts fall to zero and expire worthless.
The Iowa market correctly predicted the winner of three of the last four presidential elections. In 2000, futures trading incorrectly suggested that Bush would win the popular vote. Bush won the Electoral College, and Gore received the majority of the votes cast. Intrade's market began in 2001.
During last week's debate in Coral Gables, Florida, Kerry said Bush's decision to invade of Iraq was a ``colossal error of judgment.'' The president criticized his opponent for changing positions on the war.
Voter Response
Kerry's performance improved his standing with voters on qualities such as leadership and his ability to handle Iraq and terrorism, polls by the Los Angeles Times and Newsweek found.
Both surveys, and one by Gallup, showed Kerry pulled even with Bush when potential voters were asked who they would choose if the election were held now. Kerry, a four-term Massachusetts senator, trailed the president by 6 to 8 percentage points in five national polls done before the debate.
Some 59 percent of likely voters said Kerry won last week's debate and 21 percent favored Bush, according to a poll taken by Zogby, a polling company in Utica, New York.
``We did not get exercised when they were in the other direction,'' said Mike McCurry, a senior adviser for the Kerry campaign, on Saturday in discussing polls.
``We don't dance in the end zone and we don't cry in our beer'' over poll results, said Matthew Dowd, the Bush campaign's chief strategist, in a conference call. ``This race is basically even, which is where we thought it was going to be'' at this point, he said.
Vice President Dick Cheney and Kerry's running mate, Democratic Senator John Edwards, will debate tomorrow night in Cleveland. Bush and Kerry will square off again Oct. 8 in St. Louis and Oct. 13 in Tempe, Arizona. |
