Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Kerry Message Board

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Politics : Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Kerry

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From: CalculatedRisk	10/4/2004 8:08:43 PM
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The only poll that matters now is Nov 2nd. Bush led by as much as 13 points in the polls right before the 2000 election and Gore still won the popular vote. Even though some polls show Kerry slightly ahead (Newsweek), some show a dead heat (NY Times) and some show Bush slightly ahead (Post) ... I believe these polls do not accurately reflect the mood of the Country. There are a number of reasons for this: cell phone users are not polled (many young voters that favor Kerry), last minute 'undecideds' typically swing to the challenger, there is a large new voter registration drive and there will be an equally impressive get out the vote effort for John Kerry. The GOP gets the vote out every election, so their numbers will not increase significantly. I think people will be surprised. I think Kerry would win if the election were held today, I thought he would win if it was held two weeks ago (with Bush solidly ahead in the polls) and I think Kerry will win on Nov 2nd.

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