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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (54080)10/7/2004 9:41:10 PM
From: Taikun  Read Replies (2) of 74559
 
Malcolm,

Thanks for that.

CEO and PTR are good investments, I agree. I have profited from investments in both. They're not great-witness the pullout of some Western oil companies from further exploration in the South China Sea. The companies cited lack of transparency as an issue (Sarbanes-Oxley, for all its faults, has increased transparency in the US). Of course, there may be other issues (The Spratly Islands) but they were not explicity cited.

Malcolm, I just don't want to have to agree that China has somehow become a very Westernized nation from a decidely Communist one several years ago. Many of the same people are in power, the same institutions are in place. Only the names have changed.

I also find the Hare Krishnas distasteful when I'm strolling down Granville Street in Vancouver doing Christmas shopping. Yes, I have been harrassed by them wanting me to go to their vegetarian restaurant in Vancouver for a free meal. (I assume the brainwashing is free too).

But, at least if I want to know more about their ideology all I have to do is an internet search-and it is not on a Canadian Gov't imposed 'Google Canada'.

I just don't want to agree that China has not put a facade on its system to put on a good show for the Westerners. Just like you have to dig in the West to find out the facts, the same is just as true of China, if not more so. For example, how will we ever know the opinions of the Chinese towards Falun Gung. Do you think the gov't would allow an opinion poll?

Which is why the Hong Kong elections were a sham, conducted under duress, and any data like Yiwu's '95% of Chinese believe in one China' is not statistically significant to be worthy of mention. I do not see how the data can be good when the information is so controlled. It is like asking the average American if they think the gold price is manipulated or if Saddam was connected to 911.

I agree we should follow Jay and also think that the another entry point for Chinese stocks will be after their inevitable correction. Whether in a few months or years (after the Olympics?), any correction should represent the last buying opportunity, or opportunity to add to positions, in Chinese stocks for many years. PTR and CEO will be at the top of my list (as I'm sure they will be yours).

David
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