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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: orkrious who wrote (13028)10/8/2004 8:08:54 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (2) of 116555
 
deflation doesn't mean everything goes down in price.

the problem with a lot of the is-it-inflation-or-deflation debate is it devolves into semantic hairsplitting. crude doubles, healthcare skyrockets, housing skyrockets, foods are being marked up before their shelflife is out, just about anything physical is being marked up thanks to skyrocketing energy, but people split hairs to come up with their conclusions. they say, ah yes, those few little things may be inflationary, but actually that's even MORE deflationary for the rest of the economy as it diverts spending dollars.

but this joke isn't funny anymore. in fact these things are prima facie inflationary no matter how you slice it. what could be clearer than all the senior citizens loading up on credit card debt--yes, more credit expansion--so that they can pay for their meds. i must say i have come around to russwinter's perspective (i forget who he was quoting) that people won't change their lifestyles until they have to. the availability of myriad credit spigots means that poor income growth is not a delimiting factor, and ensures the continuity of "the American way" whether at $25 or $50 crude.
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