Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

AMAT 307.20

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Jan 12 3:59 PM EST

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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (11658)	10/8/2004 3:05:26 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (3) of 25522

Inventory corrections that result from "just in time inventories (getting juster in time) is a much better correction than a fall off in end user demand. It seems that smart box builder have deferred a channel build until the absolute last moment. To the degree that we get a good Christmas selling season,we could well build up inventories going strong into 2005. Two if and a good 05. If they waited till the last minute and if we get a good Christmas selling season - sounds like they are very doable. I still say that exceptional profitability will be recognized at lower levels of revenue(as a result of past downsizing). These blips will be anticipated,recognised,and then a global recovery will continue to drive bigger numbers. To the degree that we see all players not allow aggressive channel stuffing - we are assured a longer and more profitable recovery/growth cycle. I think these kinds of worries are healthy and certainly not worth losing a position over. In short it is good business and the companies are doing what they should. Bob

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