Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

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To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (11668)	10/8/2004 5:29:13 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 25522

Hi Al, If the inventory is a result of high yield - then they just have to start fewer wafers and enjoy the yield efficiencies - after the excess is clear. On the bright side Christmas is near and this quarter is when the ramp up for production should be ongoing now. The asian assembler going 24/7 makes this possibilty look good. No doubt when there is excess inventory - margins go to pot. Believe me as a car dealer I'm totally aware that 1 too many makes margins slip. I believe that is the reason Intel dropped their margins guidance to 58 - 60 vs 60 +or- 2 points. If they want to blow out the inventory ,then calling the asian black box makers and offering a discount is a good way to do it. Intel has done this and left HP with a stuffed channel of overpriced boxes before. My bet is we'll see the retailers handing out cheap laptops at almost unbelievable prices - compared to what we're used to. Remember 2000 when everyone said you can't make money selling computer below 1000.It will be a commodity. Well laptops are going there also. Heck Dell sells towers for 499 and they'r P4 nice stuff. This Christmas, cars ,electronics,TVs,PC's are all going to battle for the consumer's money.It will be a great buying Christmas as the deals will be more attractive than ever. I think the deals will be so good - we're gonna just not be able to restrain ourselves. It will be a Merry Christmas - especially if we get this election behind us with a Christmas Rally and Osama in jail along with Saddam. Sounds good huh? Good to hear from you again. Bob

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