Demand for copper is going to have to come down (as there is little new supply) , and I think it's already happening. Asia is much further along the Bust path than is generally perceived.
Message 20618286
Playing Cu futures and stocks is entering a tougher seat belt phase. On the otherhand it's also in the rewarding recognition phase where the cognoscenti (at last!) is figuring these shortages out, and it's being reflected in the action lately.
So for someone like me who has patiently time arbitraged this, want to avoid getting out too soon. My "hearing footsteps" concerns about MoP lies on the jobs report, took me out of one-fourth of my futures and my HUGO position last Thursday in fact, as I was anticipating a USD pop, so even I get conditioned by the BS and MoP subterfuge. Generally though, if this follows the path of most moves in the financial markets, there will be increasing warnings of a Bust and Train Wreck, that will be ignored, so hopefully the Bust won't take us by surprise. Keeping a close eye on the Comex and LME drawdowns is one indicator. However, I think once it looks like a serious Bust gets into the cognoscenti playbook, we will want to be out of the way, and out of Cu. I Just don't think we are quite there yet, but may evolve rapidly. |
