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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: ild who wrote (19783)	10/11/2004 11:54:00 AM
From: re3	Read Replies (2) of 110194

Date: Mon Oct 11 2004 11:28 trotsky (Gourmet Dan, 8:44) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "Remember that the whole world has an interest in keeping the dollar up. The whole world. " and further: " No, the dollar will be managed, it's in everyone's best interest. " it's true that no-one 'wants' the dollar to crash, and that everybody is busy 'managing' it ( e.g. China and Japan both buy huge amounts of dollars to keep it aloft ) . but it is wrong to assume that just because no-one 'wants' something to happen that it therefore won't happen. as far as i can tell, no-one wanted to see crude oil at $53/bbl., yet there it is. no-one wanted the Nasdaq to crash by 80%, and yet it did. the BoE not only didn't want the pound to crash vs. the mark in '92, it even squandered almost 70% of its then foreign exchange holdings in the attempt to defend it. and yet it crashed. i could probably cite 100ds of similar examples, but the point i wish to make is made: it doesn't matter what everybody 'wants', or how powerful the entities involved are - the market will always prove bigger and trump them. this is not to say that i'm favoring the 'dollar crash' scenario. i'm just saying that the fact that no-one wants it to happen is no guarantee whatsoever that it won't.

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