Wafer Shipments to Grow 23% in 2004, Says SEMI
October 11, 2004 (HONG KONG) -- Wafer shipments will grow 23% in 2004 but only a 5% increase is expected in 2005, according to the SEMI Silicon Manufacturers Group (SMG) Consensus Forecast. The Consensus Forecast, obtained through surveying SMG members -- the leading suppliers of silicon wafers -- provides a silicon wafer shipment outlook for 2004 through 2007.
The forecast shows silicon shipments reaching 6,313 million square inches in 2004, 6,596 million square inches in 2005, 6,784 million square inches in 2006, and 7,201 million square inches in 2007 (see Fig). These include polished silicon wafers (including virgin test wafers, epitaxial silicon wafers) and non-polished silicon wafers shipped by the wafer manufacturers to the end-users.
"The silicon wafer capacity continued to be in balance with the demand through the first half of 2004 and we foresee continued moderate year-on-year growth that will result in cautious expansion and a tight supply scenario that should lead to an improved financial outlook for the silicon industry," said John Kauffmann, VP of marketing for MEMC and chairman of the SMG.
Kauffmann said that the SMG concurs with the statement in the July news release from the Japan Society of Newer Metals, which indicates that "the administrative circumstances of the silicon industry are becoming more severe [a tighter supply]" and "semiconductor manufacturers and silicon manufacturers should further strengthen ties of partnership and cooperate on technology, cost, etc, to settle the existing issues."
If DRAM makers are able to increase production of DRAM products in anticipation of more demand for PCs, a shortage may not be felt intensively. But if they are slow in improving yield rates, it will increase the likelihood of customers placing more orders than necessary. This may trigger a hike in DRAM prices.
Table: Forecast of Total Electronic Grade Silicon Slices, 2004-07
Actual 2003
Forecast 2004
Forecast 2005
Forecast 2006
Forecast 2006
MSI*
5,149
6,313
6,596
6,784
7,201
Annual growth
10%
22.9%
4.5%
2.9%
6.2%
Notes: *Million Square Inches. Source: SEMI.
Silicon wafers are the fundamental building material for semiconductors, which in turn, are vital components of virtually all electronics goods, including computers, telecommunications products, and consumer electronics. The wafers are produced in various diameters (from one inch to 12 inches) and serve as the substrate material on which more than 95% of today's chips are fabricated.
The SMG acts as an independent special interest group within the SEMI structure and is open to all SEMI members involved in manufacturing polycrystalline silicon, monocrystalline silicon or silicon wafers not including reclaimed wafers. The purpose of the group is to facilitate collective efforts on issues related to the silicon industry including the acquisition of market information and statistics about the silicon industry and the semiconductor market.
(NE Asia Online) |
