Larry:
Re: <<I've felt from the beginning that Saddam's plan was to lose the war quickly and with as little damage to personnel and weaponry >>
Why do you think this?
1. Saddam was a megalomaniac, no? Stalin was another. Even though he had months of advance knowledge (reports of spies, massive and detailed intelligence of the German buildup, even the detailed report of a German communist who swam the Vistula to tell of the imminence of the attack. When it came on 6/22/41, it took Stalin totally by surprise and found the Russians unprepared; he closeted himself in his bedroom and was incommunicato for 2 days. (See"Stalin: Inside the Court of the Red Czar."
2. If you read Jon Anderson's book, "The Fall of Baghdad," you will see the interviews the author had with insiders of the regime as the U.S. invasion took place. These were highly placed people who would have known of a "guerilla war" plan, had there been one. Instead these people described a picture very much like the turmoil that took place in Stalin's Court: turmoil, uncertainty about what was taking place and what the strategy was, etc
3. It is very rare in history for a regime - or a people -
to voluntarily give up their homes and country. It can only IMO be done in a democracy; the loss of prestige in a dictator who always presents himself to his people as omnipotent is almost always fatal. (The example of Athens before the Battle of Salamis is the single example I know of.)
In my opinion, Saddam believed until the last moment that he could avoid an invasion by tiny tactical concessions; like Stalin, he just did not believe - because he didn't want to believe - that the U.S. would have the audacity to physically remove him from power. He and hisregime were surprised.
Also, the omniscience that it would have taken to anticipate a successful guerilla war - and to prepare for it - is also uncharacteristic of dictators.
Bruce |
