Looks like one of the regular cognoscenti, "weak economy" reactive selloffs that Cu is subject to. The "playbook" seems to overlook that Cu inventory can disappear off the planet, in a weak economy, and in fact that's exactly what's been happening. Maybe at some point, the playbook crowd will wake up to my Train Wreck scenario (the reality), as opposed to their rationalizations. When I saw the decline, I thought, oh, oh, some "mystery horde" appeared in LME overnight. But no, just another drawdown, bringing us to a puny 131,684 MT in LME nd Comex. There's only 41,899 MT in Comex, makes one wonder about the intregity of that market. I'm hoping this is a high intensity "gift" selloff designed to peel off some of the spec metal longs. If so, I think it will be very brief.
One factor we need to watch right now is a China repeg, rumors going around.
Message 20623060
I just have this gut that it's coming right after the Thursday trade fiasco numbers, maybe over the weekend? This morning the Russians are letting the Ruble run up against the USD, think that will be the new trend. If it's going to happen it will happen well before the end of October, as post election doesn't make sense if they think they will be dealing with Bush for the next four years, throw a so called bone. More importantly, Asia is under enormous input goods stress from this tracking the value of the USD lower. They really need to pass the Old Maid Card back to the US, and this is how they do it. The fallout of this will be big in all kinds of markets. |
