Hewitt - It is not correct to say the election is 20 days away. The election has begun. I voted for the president this morning by absentee, and all across the country and indeed the globe, people are already voting. Which is why defining "the choice" in bold terms and simple declaratory sentences matters a great deal. The debate tonight matters more than the first three because it occurs as the absentees begin to arrive and get returned. The president's many advantages can probably not be undone except for a massive mistake, so I expect an energetic but nevertheless defensive approach to tonight's exchanges which will once again disappoint the base. If Kerry makes the mistake of believing the polls that show him closing, he'll also play defense. If, as I suspect, he comes out swinging because of the monumental error of "terrorism = nuisance", that will telegraph that the real polls --the ones the campaigns do for themselves-- continue to tell a terrible picture for Kerry.
What's the best indicator of Kerry's troubles? He and Edwards are campaigning and advertising almost exclusively in blue states, except for Florida and Ohio, and while recent polls in Ohio (though not in Florida) show good numbers for Kerry, the president's coming blitz through Ohio will get the state right back to where it was when the Columbus Dispatch poll had Bush up 7. Bush, on the other hand, is in Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota etc.
Incredibly, at this critical juncture, the left is sending the country a clear message of its deep anger and intention to govern (in the unlikely event it gets that chance) with rage and vengeance. Sinclair Broadcasting announces it will show Stolen Honor. The fever swamp is outraged, and begins to harass advertisers on Sinclair. DailyKos announces that The Sylvan Learning Center has buckled and has pulled advertising (but there is no confirmation). Carroll's Furniture in Arden MN pulls its ad dollars from the Minneapolis Sinclair station as well according to a post in this thread at Kevin Drum's site (again, no confirmation). Josh Marshall is also urging direct action against advertisers on Sinclair stations. Atrios is also on the barricades calling for payback (and he wants you to cancel your subscription to the New York Times as well for running a Charles Murray op-ed! "God I hate these people," he says of the New York Times.)
The cue for this rebranding of the Free Speech Movement came from Kerry spokesman Chad Clanton, who said on FoxNews yesterday that Sinclair had "better hope we don't win." I'd be amazed if any major advertiser pulled out as a result of fever swamp growlings, but I will check on it during the day and report on it on the air this afternoon. The downside of buckling to the left's censorship would be lasting damage to the brand on the center-right. I assume Sylvan wants a brand that doesn't repel Republicans looking for a tutor for their kids, right? And that Carroll will sell tables to Northern Alliance listeners. We'll see, but caving to threats from Atrios and Josh Marshall just doesn't seem like good business to me, especially when you consider that Atrios is also boycotting the New York Times. If Atrios had his way, I think you could only shop at organic farms and only watch CBS.
MediaResearchCenter puts out some choice Bob Schieffer quotes. The idea of an anchor from The Forgery Network is amusing. Poor Schieffer really cannot win tonight. If he leans left, it underscores all the damage Rather had wrought. If he plays it extremely neutral, the fever swamp will scream he's been neutered.
The "big" (but not really) story is of course Kerry's discharge, brought to you from Thomas Lipscomb and The New York Sun, and commented on by , Instapundit and Powerline. But I find the e-mail to Polipundit questioning the idea that Kerry was in any trouble whatsoever at the time of his discharge to be very persuasive. The thrust of Lipscomb's piece seems to be that Carter Administration pols "fixed" Kerry's discharge papers. I am a skeptic, and also cannot believe that focus on this story any way helps the campaign. People are voting already, and any inclined to doubt Kerry's fitness for office on the basis of his wartime service have already decided that, and those not persuaded by Christmas-Eve-not-in-Cambodia aren't going to budge because of a complicated conjecture.
It is all about "the choice" before the country --a tested and proven Commander-in-Chief or a hollow, inauthentic man for whom old Europe holds all the answers.
For some great comic relief and genuine insight into the blogosphere, check out RightWingNews' symposium on the blogosphere, featuring superstars of the center-right Ace of Spades, A Small Victory, IMAO, and INDC Journal. Great fun. When I read an exchange like this, and then consider (1) the rise of center-right blog alliances in Colorado, South Dakota, and of course Minnesota, (2) the growth in new blogs like those I have been promoting these past few weeks at Stones Cry Out, MattCrash and Got Design, (3)the exponential growth of places like RealClearPolitics, KerrySpot, The Corner, and TheDailyStandard (and don't miss P.J. O'Rourke's piece today), (4)the prolific contributions of blogs like Captains Quarters and Betsy's Page, (5) the sheer intellectual muscle of folks like Allahpundit, Beldar, Belmont Club, Instapundit, Tom McGuire, the Powerline gang, PrestoPundit, RedState, RogerLSimon, Charles etc., (6) the milblogs like Blackfive, Mudville and Smash and (7) the capacity for great, good humor expressed with genuine art (Lileks, Fraters, Monkeys, CadetHappy) I am convinced that the contrast could not be more clear between the blogosphere of the center-right and the Sinclair-bashing, obscenity and invective-filled left noted above, and that that contrast bodes very well for politics in the long term. The center-right has the talent and the bench. The left is slipping even farther into the fever swamp --the "Bush was wired" howler, and just about every post at the swamp's big four for the past month-- and is not producing new talent of note while the center-right is maturing into a vast and cross-contributing and promoting network of serious journalists and pundits with an abundance of humor and a willingness to self-correct at a moment's notice.
Live blogging the debate, of course, tonight. |
