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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity
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To: Larry S. who wrote (21870)10/14/2004 2:45:02 PM
From: kodiak_bull  Read Replies (2) of 23153
 
Here's the very interesting real futures market for the electoral college, on a buy/sell basis. Click on Politics and then US Presidential Elec to go state by state futures contracts for Bush:

intrade.com

It's very interesting because if you open up one of the "map" sites you can then go down, state by state and see how the electoral part of the election is doing.

For example on this map, Iowa, New Jersey and New Hampshire are seen as dead heats:

electoral-vote.com

In the futures market Iowa is 53 x 55 for Bush, but New Hampshire and New Jersey are dead certain for Kerry. New Mexico which is "barely Bush" on the map is clearly Kerry in the futures market.

We'll see, in the end, how much more accurate the real money polls (futures) are than the corruptible polls (telephone calls to likely voters, etc.).

Kb
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