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Politics : Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Kerry
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To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (52993)10/14/2004 8:46:01 PM
From: CalculatedRisk of 81568
 
I've been forecasting (since early this year on Mish's thread) a slowdown starting after the election or in the first half of 2005.

We have some serious economic issues in America. I was disappointed in the debate questions: nothing on energy or the environment and the budget deficit was also given short shrift. There were no questions about the burgeoning trade deficit, the weakening dollar or imbalances being created by the FED's monetary policy of holding rates at emergency levels for an extended period.

I think it is a difficult task to explain to economic laymen why Bush’s misdirected tax cuts and deficit spending has caused the FED to keep rates at emergency levels. In turn, the FED's actions have created significant imbalances, especially in the housing market that will slow any economic recovery.

If the slowdown becomes a recession, watch out! Right now we are out of tools to fight a recession; we have no fiscal flexibility due to the Bush deficits, and we have very little monetary flexibility with rates already at emergency levels.

Thanks goodness we have excellent international relationships in case of a worldwide recession. Sometimes sarcasm doesn’t come across in writing, but I think Kerry will help in this last area by reassuring the World community.
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