WDC/Sandisk Corporation Message Board

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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation

WDC 179.68

-1.0%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Trader J who wrote (26829)	10/14/2004 9:12:48 PM
From: limtex	Read Replies (2) of 60323

Imagine waiting for Q4 numbers in about thrre months time. The expectations are high. There is quite a bit of comment recently to the effect that Q4 numbers in the economy generally may not reach expectations. The oil bubble continues its daily rise and we may see warnings before the end of the Q. Eli's new products are great news but how much patent strenght lies behind them as it did for CF, MMC and SD etc. Patents are what gave SNDK its edge. Without patents SNDK iks in the commodity business or in a business where the entry barriers are not that daunting for serious semi companies. A flash based mp3 player is a natural. We talked about it here over four years ago. But flash is now commoditzed with many comoanies now or soon to be in the business. MP3 interface and player software is not in the least difficult so anyone can make it and for that matter AAPL could make a solid state Ipod. I love the ides that sndk will be selling one of these gadgets but my guess is that even an announcement from a competitor will cause comments from analysts about the "quality" of any earnings from a flash based mp3 player. Mobile phone memory based on a patented form factor is of course different. But there will be if there are not already, competitive technolgies in this area and the profits on the flsh memeory itself is bound to be of really great interest to the handset makers. The result of all this indicates to me the possiblity that the stock may still be volatile even after todays move. Announcements about great new products very often don't have the relatively immediate beneficial effect that one hopes for at first sight. Best, L

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