Barnett - Iraq's Saturday Night Live
"Iraq TV delivers twists on reality and reality shows: Popular program takes on topics previously taboo," by Cesar G. Soriano, USA Today, 14 October 2004, p. 23A.
The show "Caricatures" is a huge hit on Iraqi TV, even though it broadcasts at 2:35 on Friday afternoons. Not only do millions watch it every week, but plenty more buy it on videodiscs immediately after broadcast.
The shows popularity stems from the shots it takes at topics ranging from Iraq's interim government and the nation's violence to the lack of electricity and the U.S. military presence …
Caricateera airs on Al-Sharqiya, or "The Eastern," Iraq's first independently owned satellite channel. The network was launched June 11 by Iraqi media mogul Saad al-Bazzaz . . . Al-Bazzaz has invested $30 million in the network, one of five in Iraq. But Al-Sharqiya is the only one with original, non-news programming . . .
Asked if such a show could have aired before the U.S.-led invasion, makeup artists and script contributor Nawar Saed makes a hand motion of her throat being cut. "Are you kidding? No way!" she says.
Caricateera is an equal-opportunity basher; no political party or ethnic group is free from ridicule. So far, only a few midlevel officials have called to complain on behalf of their bosses, who are never named on the show.
The cast hails from all three major ethnic groups, but that's only an accident. As the director notes: "This program is a channel between the people and the government. Until there is a democratically elected government, we will represent the people."
Yes, yes, the cynics and experts were right. These people have absolutely no hope of ever becoming democratic.
Posted by Thomas P.M. Barnett at 04:42 PM
Pressuring Seam States to do better on security creates it own backlash—no surprise there
¦"Moroccans Gain Prominence in Terror Groups," by Craig Whitlock, Washington Post, 14 October 2004, p. A1.
Terrorist experts in Europe say Morocco is becoming radicalized, and a large impetus for that is the U.S. and European push to get Morocco's government to crack down on groups operating there. Is this surprising? Not at all. Morocco is a classic Seam State between the Core and Gap, so our military and security assistance focuses on this state. But being a Seam State, it's also an important place for terrorist groups trying to access the Core to do their mischief, so don't expect them to back down easily. Plus, any pulsing of the society naturally engenders a response. Simply put, you shoot at opposing forces and they shoot back.
Posted by Thomas P.M. Barnett at 04:41 PM
Tracking the Big Bang's "military solutions"
¦"Saudis Blame U.S. and Its Role in Iraq for Rise of Terror," by Joel Brinkley, New York Times, 14 October 2004, p. A3.
¦"The Way We Live Now (in Israel)," op-ed by Bret Stephens, Wall Street Journal, 14 October 2004, p. A18.
The Ministry of Interior spokesman Gen. Mansour al-Turki expresses the growing realization by the House of Saud that the Big Bang strategy of taking down Saddam and occupying Iraq is forcing them to deal with their own terrorism problems, which previously they were more than happy to export to other places—the farther away the better:
Many of the attackers came back to Saudi Arabia after fighting with the Taliban in Afghanistan, he said, drawing on interviews with arrested terrorists.
"They were angry that their dream," a fundamentalist Islamic state, "had been killed by America," General al-Turki said. "They wanted to spread their war against the United States and found that doing this was easier in their own country. But it wasn't until the invasion of Iraq that they could convince others in the country to share their goals. For that reason, the invasion was very important to them."
No general, it was very important to the United States . . ..
The Israelis already get this logic. In this, the fifth year of the second Intifada, Jerusalem is quieter than it has been in a very long time. How did this come about? First, Israel assassinated Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin. That yielded almost six months of no terror attacks. The army also rounded up about 6k of the usual suspects and the security fence's construction proceeded apace.
Here's the very realistic analysis by Bret Stephens on the impact of these measures:
Taken together, these measures prove what a legion of diplomats, pundits and reporters have striven to deny: that there is a military solution to the conflict. This is true in two senses. First, a sufficiently strong military response to terrorism does not simply feed a cycle of violence (although a weak military response does); rather, it speeds the killing to a conclusion. That makes it possible for Israelis and Palestinians to resume a semblance of normal life. Second, a military solution creates new practical realities, and new strategic understandings from which previously elusive political opportunities may emerge.
That practical reality is primarily the new Berlin Wall going up between Israel and Gaza and the West Bank. The political opportunity is going to be for the Core to finally put up peacekeepers along that wall or shut up about "roadmaps" and all that other B.S. that has never gotten us anywhere in over 30 years of trying. Then it's a matter of buying off a generation of hatred in the Gaza and West Bank by guaranteeing companies that invest there that they'll make a profit—no matter what. Then there's the task of eliminating the Jewish settlements in the West Bank and paying for those families' relocation and new housing in Israel, where—frankly—there is an extreme shortage of affordable housing.
This is the military-market solution set for Israel and Palestine, do-able over the long term and not nearly the price tag we're paying in Iraq. No Leviathan required, but plenty of Sys Admin forces needed. You can tell me this is too simplistic an approach, and you will be wrong.
Posted by Thomas P.M. Barnett |
