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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation

WDC 157.84

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3:59 PM EST

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To: slacker711 who wrote (26407)	10/15/2004 11:17:53 AM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (2) of 60323

Samsung NAND Flash Q3 CC notes.... - 72% bit growth during the quarter. Half of this was driven by production increases and half by reducing inventory. Their nventory is now around a week. - ~40% decline in ASP's during the 3rd Q. - Supply/Demand seems to be inline right now. - In the 4th Q, 20% bit increase....ASP drop in the teens. - They see overall channel inventory as being very low. - 90nm production increased from 22% to 65% during the quarter. - If demand stays the way it is right now, the drop in ASP's should be 10%....if it gets worse, it will be closer to 20%. - Bit growth is projected to be 120% in '05 (I think that this is up from a prior assumption of 100%)....and an ASP decline of 35-40%. - MLC production will begin in Q2 05 with 4Gbit chips on 90nm and continue with 8Gb on 70nm during the second half (this is a change from prior comments where they indicated the 8Gb chip would be the first with MLC). MLC will be limited to low performance applications....and will only total 20% of production. - They dont see an oversupply situation for NAND until '06. Slacker

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