Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (13551)	10/16/2004 10:55:43 AM
From: glenn_a	Read Replies (1) of 116555

LongIslandGuy. It seems like we concur on strong deflationary headwinds and the possibility for a devaluation (collapse?) in the US$. If one has the above perspective, is US T-bonds really the place to be? One, you have currency risk, and two, I believe it is possible that the US may have to raise rates even in a deflationary environment to attract sufficient funds to rollover existing debt. I certainly would rather be in US T-bonds that any of US tech stocks, GSE-issued debt, or say emerging market debt. But I share Russ's pessimism on US bonds in light of massive artificial demand from Asian central banks, and US$ vulnerabilities. [Late edit: And I agree with Tomasso that shorter maturities are definately preferable to longer maturities.] What's your thoughts on this? TIA. Glenn

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