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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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From: Square_Dealings10/16/2004 12:32:54 PM
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The REAL turn in gold will come when the specs big and small overpower the commercials (banks)

Until that time comes (and I believe we are very close) the banks will control the gold price. It has happened like clockwork that the spec position gets big and then a huge correction comes. One of these days that will not be the case and it will be the commercials covering because they have are out of ammo to hold the price down. The first leg of the bull move in gold was completely driven by specs that got crushed at the end. The next leg up will be completely driven by specs and it will be the commercial banks that get crushed in the end. So I expect this next leg to go much higher than anyone expects from this blowoff commercial short covering.

The true bull market comes when the banks get in trouble because they have loaned too much relative to their reserves.

this is a great picture
prudentbear.com

this is also a great picture.
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I keep flip flopping on rates but I think there is no way they can be raised fast enough to step the flood of money out of the U.S. because any sudden jump will cause the mortgage bubble to implode. U.S. is doomed by its own greed.

The gold bull market hasnt even begun but it is on the edge of a huge turn here imo.

cheers

M.
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