Un-Polled Young Voters May Decide Election
WASHINGTON (AP) -- A growing number of people rely solely on cell phones to make and take calls, putting them out of reach of polling organizations trying to get a fix on the American electorate.
Many cell-only users are young and mobile, a demographic that often doesn't vote. That makes survey researchers confident their polling, which excludes cell phone numbers, reflects the opinions of those likely to have an impact on Election Day. Still, with reports of unprecedented voter registration, many young voters could be flying under the pollsters' radar.
"Pollsters don't think the cell phone issue will affect them this year, but they are worried about it," said Michael Brick, a survey methods specialist at Westat, a research firm in Rockville, Maryland. "This may be the last round of presidential elections before it does have an effect."
When tracking this year's election, pollsters contact people on traditional phones. (Special Report: America Votes 2004, poll tracker)
About 5 percent of all households receive telephone service only by cellular phone, according to a face-to-face survey done earlier this year by the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Among young adults up to age 24, the number is close to three times as high.
* I have personally debated Rasmussen about this and the guy doesn't get it. But this article proves I'm right. I would add about 2-3% to Kerry in the polls on this factor alone. Also voter turnout amongst Dems is likely to be much higher than 2000. That could add another 2-3%. |
