Hello Tommaso, <<The Chinese might well wish to buy out the entire project, as they have recently tried to buy Noranda, but national security of Canada, not to speak of much U. S. interest, would surely prevent this>>
If we were to go the lonelier path,
(a) The long term national security of Canada may be served better by the Noranda deal going through for China MinMetals, because China does not believe in ill-conceived and not-astutely implemented regime-changing wars just for the heck of it.
My feel is that the deal will take place, as Aussieland has sold quite a bit of reserve to China without apparent national security issues, real or for that matter, imagined.
In the worst case, a group of Canadian Chinese will buy Noranda.
After all, Canada selling Noranda may serve as marketing budget for promoting Canadian wheat and airplane sales to China. Brazil figured that angle out, and so will the Canadians.
Resistence is futile.
(b) It is also conceivable that a plop of Yukos will go to China, but via a local Russian intereim buyer so value is extracted from existing shareholders. There are not amany Russian Chinese around yet, and so the deal would have to be blessed and must benefit the Kremlin; and
(c) Syncrude reserve, yup, may go as well, per above (a)
Should any of two of above go through successfully, global revaluation of reserve may happen, in line with the New New World Order, which actually would simply be a reversion to the historic mean. All would then be as it should have been in the first place.
Let us continue to watch and brief.
Chugs, Jay |
