"To: Interested Parties
FR: Matthew Dowd
Re: State Of The Presidential Race
As the campaign enters its final days, President Bush has seized the momentum and is well-positioned to win re-election in a close race.
Supporters should use the momentum to recruit two new George W. Bush supporters between now and Election Day. In the next two weeks, let's each try to get two new people to vote for the President who we haven't touched yet – two in two!
With this momentum in hand, the campaign will be spending the last two weeks on the offensive. The President is doing increasingly well among voters deemed a part of the key swing group: the President is winning independent voters, he is doing better among women voters than 2000, and we have the opportunity to achieve historic gains among minority voters.
...The President led Kerry by about 5 points prior to the debates, but the debates energized the Democratic base and closed the race to dead even. Now, the President is on the upswing and leads Kerry by 4 points nationally, 49% to 45% — almost identical to his position before the debates.
When Kerry adviser Tad Devine declared in Tempe that 'we leave the debate with an advantage that is measurable,' the Kerry campaign was dancing on the 50-yard line. Now they'll be crying in their beer. No challenger who trailed an incumbent president after the conclusion of the debates has ever gone on to win.
Terrorism and Iraq remain key issues of the campaign, and President Bush continues to lead by double-digits on both of them. In the recent Newsweek poll, terrorism was the top issue for 26% of voters (President Bush leads Kerry by 16 points on handling terrorism in the same poll) and Iraq was the top issue for 20% (President Bush leads Kerry by 10 points on handling Iraq).
Yesterday's Gallup poll shows that John Kerry's favorability has remained stagnant through the debates. Between Gallup's Sept. 15 and Oct. 16 polls, Kerry has remained at a net +7 favorability. President Bush now has a net +11 favorability, at 55% favorable and 44% unfavorable.
In yet another sign of the President's momentum, the Kerry campaign pulled its advertising out of West Virginia on Friday, making it the latest in a string of their retreats from former 'battleground"' states. In fact, the Kerry campaign and its allies have now conceded victory to the President by pulling out of Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, and Virginia, after they combined to spend $36 million on ads in those states.
But Kerry and his allies aren't the only ones who are increasingly skeptical of their chances — Americans also believe that President Bush will win re-election. According to the recent ABC News poll, 56% of Americans believe that President Bush will win the election, compared to just 33% who think Kerry will win.
And the President's travel will reflect this movement. In the next two weeks, 2/3 of the days will be spent in states Al Gore carried in 2000, as opposed to protecting states. For example, the President will visit New Jersey today, a state that Gore won by 16 points, but recent public polls show to be competitive. And in those states he will be visiting swing as well as high-growth areas with many new voters.
Please do all you can in this 'two voters in two weeks' program, and if we are successful, we will be celebrating on November 2nd." |
