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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (19910)10/19/2004 4:45:35 PM
From: Carl Worth  Read Replies (1) of 78731
 
interesting to play guess the bottom in CL (i don't own it, so have no stake in the race)

certainly they have tremendous brand name recognition which should continue to give them a strong place in the markets they serve (their warning even included reference to expanding market share)

they have a mediocre at best balance sheet, so they get zero value for that IMHO

as such, a multiple of 15x next year's earnings would yield a price of 40 bucks, and that seems about right considering their franchise, adjusted for no earnings growth this year, and probably about 10% growth in the future...obviously 40 also has the added probability of round number support

i'd rather own something like PEP, but CL is probably attractive around 40, especially to sell puts, as worst case you end up with a solid company that would at that point pay a 2.5% dividend

anyone else want to play guess the bottom? -g-
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