Kerry Spot -
Jesse Jackson joins Kerry on the stump in Orlando, Florida, October 18, 2004.
IF YOU'RE NOT SKEPTICAL ABOUT POLLS, AT LEAST BE SKEPTICAL OF RUMORS [10/19 04:54 PM]
At least three times in the last three days, I've gotten e-mails from various folks asking to hear if I've heard "the latest rumor - Bush is dropping out of [VITAL SWING STATE]."
Which state? Well, one day the hot rumor is Pennsylvania, the next it's New Hampshire, the next it's Wisconsin. Tomorrow it will probably be Texas. These are all states in which Bush has been ahead or trailing in the low single digits, but now we're supposed to believe General Rove has sounded the call to retreat in the middle of a successful fight.
Riiiiiiiight.
Folks, unless you hear it from a reputable source and it's confirmed by the campaign (and the ads are actually pulled), don't believe it. This goes for rumors about Kerry pulling out, too.
I increasingly suspect that the same genius strategists who thought there was serious momentum to be gained by spamming the post-debate online polls now think they can depress the other side by starting rumors that one candidate or the other is giving up.
This is not to say campaigns don't concede states. For example, on Sept. 23, CBS Marketwatch reported that the Kerry campaign opted to pull television advertisements in four states — Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana and Missouri.
And my guess is, at some point, each campaign is going to have to concede a state or two. Keep an eye on what states the candidates and surrogates visit in the final days of the campaign - and which states don't get visits.
CHATTING WITH A LONGTIME GOP OPERATIVE [10/19 03:22 PM]
I wish Bush supporters who feel pessimistic or jittery could listen to the phone conversation I just had with a longtime GOP operative. This gentleman, who has been in politics longer than I have been alive, states:
* If the Washington Post/ABC tracking poll gets any more separation in the coming days, and there’s one or two good state polls for Bush, this race is over.
* The University of Cincinnati poll showing Kerry up by 2 is “garbage.” It’s conducted over an entire week. The internals show Kerry leading among men 50 to 46 (what?) and leading 47 to 46 among women. Also note they have Kerry getting 95 percent of the African-American vote, when a national poll showed Bush getting 18 percent. Also note that Kerry leads among Democrats 88 to 7, independents 55 to 26, but still leads the overall poll by only two points.
* In any given cycle, the polls show about five or six GOP Senate candidates in competitive trailing who end up winning. This year, there are about six GOP Senate candidates leading in competitive races.
* In the past week or so, we’ve seen Team Kerry go after Mary Cheney; the candidate himself charge that Bush is going to bring back the draft; the citing of a disputed New York Times quote to allege that Bush is going to privatize Social Security; Kerry assert that if you get the flu this winter it’s George W. Bush’s fault; and that George W. Bush is lying when he says he wants the generals in the field to get what they need. (From the man who voted against the $87 billion!) What is this a sign of? Not a confident and aggressive campaign, but a desperate and flailing campaign.
The timing of the Social Security attacks were particularly baffling to this veteran of GOP campaigns. “Way too early,” he said. “If they did this the last weekend of the campaign, it would reach seniors, and the Bush folks wouldn’t have time to make a response. But instead they do it now.” The Bush team is responding already, and the attacks will be old news by the time Election Day rolls around.
Why would Team Kerry go so negative, so fast, so hard, and so outlandishly? They sensed a serious drop in the polls, this operative suspects. They expected to come roaring out of the debates, and instead, they’re acting as if things have really started to go south.
I don’t know if this operative is right about everything, but I sure as heck respect his instincts and his assessment.
HEY, LOOK AT THIS! COMMON SENSE IN TWO KEY STATES! [10/19 02:26 PM]
From the Washington Times:
Judges in Florida and Colorado yesterday tightened access to polling places in their states, a blow to Democrats who had argued that legal restrictions there disenfranchised voters — especially new ones, mostly Democratic-leaning minorities...
In a unanimous ruling in Florida, the seven justices of the state Supreme Court said the votes of residents who cast ballots at the wrong precincts do not have to be counted, upholding a state law that labor unions argued unconstitutionally deprived residents of the right to vote if they did not know their polling place.
In Colorado, a Denver district judge yesterday upheld a new state law requiring voters to show identification before they cast their ballots and also said residents' can vote only at their predetermined precinct.
Republican Gov. Bill Owens hailed Judge Morris B. Hoffman's decision, saying that the ruling would help Colorado "ensure the integrity of next month's elections."
"With Democrats and Republicans raising concerns about potential voter fraud, it is essential that we have a common-sense mechanism to make sure that voters who come to vote are indeed who they say they are — and that they vote only once," Mr. Owens said.
Simple way to solve this issue, folks. Call your local election office and make sure you know where you're supposed to vote. Year after year, millions of people manage to do this. |
