Date: Wed Oct 20 2004 14:20
trotsky (art vandila, 11:03) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
oh well, just saw the reproduction of the post. i agree with Lacy Hunt's analysis, and have always said so. i expect new all time lows in yields in coming years, and to me the case for the secular bond bull market remains intact.
Mauldin is imo too optimistic, although he may continue to look right on paper - since US economic data vastly overstate GDP growth and productivity. thus you can have an economic contraction that looks like a mild expansion on paper - which would then register as 'muddling through'.
Date: Wed Oct 20 2004 14:00
trotsky (frewils, 10:13) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
i would agree that hedging silver 10 years out is foolish. nevertheless, it has been done. apparently the geniuses at Barrick have sold forward huge amounts of silver far into the future.
re. "it could be part carry trade, part hedging" - probably true. doing carry trades in silver and gold was riskless for a long time, and i wouldn't be surprised if many bullion banks went for it ( as a source of cheap finance ) . i rather doubt though that any miners are really engaged in 'carry trades'. usually they do have the metal in the ground to back up their hedges, although this is not always true as we have seen in the Sons of Gwalia case. in Australia they have a penchant for loading up on toxic hedge contracts...Brett Kebble is also bitten by this bug ( he saddled DROOY with a huge hedge position right at the lows in the gold price, and later repeated the exercise with Western Areas. at least WAR DOES have the gold though ) .
Date: Wed Oct 20 2004 13:52
trotsky (art vandila, 10:10) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
unfortunately i can not access the message you wanted me to read ( it requires a password ) . anyhow, i also remember the marketswing guys ( Don Sew, Lee Lichterman, if i'm not mistaken? ) and they're very good traders.
as for the timing of the K-winter bottom, i think Bob Bronson's idea re. the timing has a good probability of panning out...he expects 2010-2014 as the likely bottoming period. imo, if anything, it's likely to take longer than that, since we can expect the authorities to intervene with all their might to fight it.
Date: Wed Oct 20 2004 13:43
trotsky (Hambone, 9:59) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
"In taking on the manipulation position for silver ( or gold for that matter ) , you have set before you an impossible task, no matter how cogent your arguments, how reasoned, or how justified. You will change no one's mind who believes it exists."
that may well be so, but i felt i had to take the opportunity to put in writng what i currently think about it. it has been a journey for me too, as i used to be in the other camp myself. and i'm still not ruling anything out definitively, i just believe that the evidence presented thus far is not entirely convincing - aside from the fact that some statements are simply flat out wrong ( especially regarding the legal issues ) .
Date: Wed Oct 20 2004 13:36
trotsky (Wiffo, 9:47) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
1. "Well if we cannot rely on instituted boards of trade for relyable figures, that impunes their integrity, and since COMEX sets the price of silver......then where are we??"
in reference to my remark that only COMEX publishes warehouse stocks. well, i don't know what you're getting at. if i'm a Swiss silver refiner, there's nothing that says i have to tell ANYONE how much silver i have in inventory. i may give GFSM a guesstimate as a courtesy, but that's all.
2. B ) "it is patently NOT illegal to hedge more silver than is in inventories. many mining companies have silver hedged 10 years out."
********
"Not talking about hedging here but shorting. That is selling a commodity below its market price.
I believe that selling what you do not own is illegal. Any argument here? "
yes, i do have an argument here. shorting a commodity futures contract is perfectly legal, even if you have never in your life set eyes on the commodity in question. and shorting is NOT "selling a commodity below its market price". when you short oil today at the NYMEX, the only price you can do it at IS the market price.
3. "C ) speculators do have an effect on prices , but to say they determine them is a leap of logic and faith in the power of speculators who are, and have always have been, notoriously skittish in the marke."
this is not what i said. i said the market price is determined by the actions of ALL market participants, including speculators. and it is totally irrelevant whether speculators are deemed 'skittish' or not. in the concrete case of silver, speculative buying has been the major cause for the recent rallies - as the CoT report proves.
Date: Wed Oct 20 2004 13:25
trotsky (Dave D, 9:30) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
" "whereby the total sum of silver metal shorts excedes the total above ground supply of the silver metal in inventories."
From what source do you make this claim? "
read again. i am NOT making this claim. the sentence above was never uttered by me.
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