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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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From: CalculatedRisk	10/21/2004 10:05:36 AM
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U.S. LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND RELATED COMPOSITE INDEXES FOR SEPTEMBER 2004 The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent and the lagging index remained unchanged in September. The leading index fell again in September, the fourth consecutive decline, and the weakness in the last four months has become more widespread. However, these declines in the leading index have not been large enough nor have they persisted long enough to signal an end to the current economic expansion. The coincident index, an index of current economic activity, increased again in September and its growth continues to be widespread. Real GDP growth slowed to a 3.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter, but appears to have picked up again in the third quarter. While the leading index is not yet signaling a downturn, the growth rate of the leading index has slowed below its long-term trend growth rate, which is consistent with real GDP continuing to grow in the near term, but more slowly than its long-term trend rate. tcb-indicators.org

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