Presidential Tracking Poll: Bush-Kerry
Updated Daily by Noon Eastern Election 2004
Presidential Ballot
Bush 48.8%
Kerry 46.2%
Other 2.1%
Not Sure 2.8%
Thursday October 21, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 49% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 46%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.
When "leaners" are included, the President leads 50% to 48%. Leaners are those who initially do not express a preference for Bush or Kerry. We ask them a follow-up question to determine which way they are leaning at the moment.
Thirty-eight percent (38%) of voters say National Security issues are most important in Election 2004 while 25% name Economic issues most important.
Our weekly polling update gives a clear sense of how close and stable this race has remained since John Kerry wrapped up the Democratic nomination. However, while the race has remained stable, ideological perceptions of the candidates have changed. Voters today are far more likely to see Bush as conservative and Kerry as liberal than they were when the campaign began.
The Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections show Bush with 222 Electoral Votes and Kerry with 190. Ten Toss-Up states with 126 Electoral Votes will determine who occupies the White House over the next four years. Collectively, in the 16-Battleground States that both campaigns have contested this cycle, the candidates are tied at 48%. That's exactly where Bush and Gore ended up four years ago.
At 5:00 p.m. Eastern today, Rasmussen Reports will release additional state polling data. [More below]
Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Likely Voters are somewhat or very worried that another Florida-style mess will mar the end of Election 2004.
Fifty-two percent (52%) have a favorable opinion of the President while 50% say the same about Senator Kerry. The President's overall Job Approval rating is at 53%.
Forty-two percent (42%) give the President good or excellent ratings for handling the economy while 44% give him good or excellent marks for handling the situation in Iraq.
Forty-five percent (45%) of voters expect their taxes to go up if Senator Kerry is elected. Most expect their taxes to stay the same if the President is re-elected. On Social Security, voters are evenly divided as to which is riskier--letting workers invest on their own or relying on the federal government for promised benefits.
Rasmussen Reports has recently released state election polls for Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, West Virginia, Washington, Virginia, and Wisconsin
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