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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: glenn_a who wrote (20444)	10/21/2004 10:18:59 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) of 110194

<US$ old maid cards (as you put it) just get shuffled around in what ever manner necessary to keep the game going – that is to sustain global aggregate demand to keep the US consumer consuming. Global commodity price inflation is simply the price that is paid for this policy (for as long as it lasts). There is almost certainly a globally-coordinated policy (which doesn’t mean unanimity by any means) where the end-game is pretty much understand by all (i.e. all major global economic players).> Charles Kindleberger would call the imbalanced, unsustainable "game" or "policy" you mentioned here, causa remota . More and more signs the rats are abandoning this ship: Message 20672253 Countries are now starting to defend their currencies, delink from sinking with the USD; witness Thailand, Brazil, Canada and Europe today. Kindelberger's called this lead in to Panic or Bust, causa proxima . He describes this as occuring, when "somebody important sells", or "leaves the game" out of self interest, and usually it doesn't even matter who. They do sort of a calculus of poor versus fatal options, and pick the poor one. I think we are at that point.

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