I am glad to see this. I figured we had lost the Oklahoma seat. REDSTATE BLOG
Sen - OK: Coburn shoots ahead By: Doverspa · Section: Election 2004
According to the most recent SUSA poll:
Coburn 47 (45)
Carson 41 (45)
Bilyeu 8
Undecided 4
I'm having problems opening the .pdf on my computer right now so I can't look at the internals. However, the main data shows two major things. First, Coburn does have the momentum and a lead (6%) that is greater than the number of undecided voter (4%). Second, Carson hit his maximum level of support around 45% and is now declining.
Posted On: Oct 22nd, 2004: 08:33:08, Not Rated
Personally, I agree with Professor Gaddie that this is a reaction to the Carson campaign's negative ad blitz. Oklahoma has never taken well to negative campaigning. I believe that Carson had to run a *perfect* campaign to win in Oklahoma and it looks like they may have just made their first mistake. Here is Gaddie's analysis from SoonerPolitics:
Here's the most convincing empirical evidence so far indicating that voters are breaking for Coburn. A month back, this survey had us in a 45-45 dead heat. Bilyeu is still serving as a parking place for the disaffected, but Dr. Coburn is creeping up toward the magic 50 number.
RELATED: A poll from the Coburn campaign, conducted by Basswood, tracks an interesting effect from the Carson campaign's recent adveertising (10/21):
"A Basswood Research poll of 450 likely voters (+/- 4.6%) conducted October 11-13 showed Brad Carson with a favorable/unfavorable rating of 46-31. One week later, after a flight of over-the-top misleading ads by Carson were soundly rejected by the entire Oklahoma congressional delegation, the aforementioned 10/18-20 Basswood Research poll shows that Carson’s favorable/unfavorable rating has plummeted to 34-42 – a net shift of 23 points."
It is likely two things: the personally- negative ad on Coburn's sterilization procedure, and the direct tie of Carson's campaign to the Coburn/lesbian comment tape.
Sorry Carson... I guess nobody is perfect.
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