Heinz Replies to Mish Email
To Heinz from Mish:
China says surging oil prices have limited impact on economy
[G*d Da*n - Is there anyone anywhere on this planet that thinks rising oil prices have an impact? I am not talking about message boards I am talking about talking heads, foreign governments, or heads of treasuries or whatever anywhere on this planet. Someone tell me how oil doubling does not matter.
Everyone and I mean EVERYONE is "closely monitoring" the "situation" What exactly are they monitoring and when do they determine what to do about it?
I have done some thinking on this. It would seem that rising oil prices is indeed inflationary on energy producers but deflationary on net energy consumers. So.. some countries need to hike and some need to cut. Someone tell me please how any of this cures the imbalances that are developing. It seems to me that it adds to the total mess.
mish]
Message 20673522
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Email Reply from Heinz:
Hi Mike,
sorry, i haven't yet found the time to study that Roach article you sent me.
anyway, i just wanted to tell you i concur 100% with this assessment regarding oil. we keep hearing from everybody, including the worst economic forecaster of all time, Alan Greenspan, how rising oil prices 'don't matter' , garnished with very unlikely sounding excuses (e.g. 'it's not that high in inflation adjusted terms' or 'it's a much smaller part of the economy than it used to be' - both excuses don't withstand scrutiny imo).
as aside, with the speculator net long position in NYMEX crude at a multi-month LOW right now (small specs are actually net SHORT 20,000 contracts!) we can expect the price to continue to rise UNTIL it 'matters'.
i for one believe the stock market's complacency regarding oil is extremely dangerous - this is the kind of situation that can produce a crash. according to Investor's Intelligence, bullish sentiment on the part of financial advisors is back at a multi-month high, so it is safe to say that oil is completely ignored by the 'cognoscenti'. contrary to all the mainstream assertions (or should i say 'prayers'?) that crude at $55 is essentially meaningless, i note that according to a Merrill study a one cent rise in gasoline prices takes a $14 billion annual bite out of consumer spending (i can't vouch for this data - but anyway, it's pretty clear that rising energy costs crimp household budgets and that the numbers quickly add up). furthermore, there has been not a single significant rise in the oil price that has NOT been followed by a recession. there simply are no exceptions, even in those cases where the price rise was only temporary (e.g. 1990).
lastly, in a deflationary era, such commodity price rises tend to have a deflationary effect on aggregate price levels. note that broad money supply year-on-year growth rates are at a 10- year low - the price rise is NOT being 'monetized'. if money growth continues to fall, and eventually reaches zero, then other prices MUST fall to balance the oil price rise (or demand for other goods will fall to make up for the increased cost of energy - likely a combination of both will occur). note in this context that thus far, oil has proven totally price inelastic, i.e. oil demand itself has not reacted to the price rise. this has always been true - it takes a HUGE price increase to crimp demand (like e.g. the 1970's rise from $2 bbl. to $40 bbl.). i expect this energy crisis (yes, it's a crisis) to badly affect the economy, and soon. we already have the necessary lag time behind us (basically, about 6 to 9 months from the first crossing of $40 bbl. should be the beginning of the recession - just a guesstimate of mine, this is not a provable assertion).
regards,
hb |
