Glenayre Technologies(GEMS)- a pure cellular PCS play? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Glenayre Technologies(GEMS)- a pure cellular PCS play?

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To: David M. Selman who wrote (1784)	8/28/1997 12:23:00 AM
From: van wang	of 3431

David...this is what I came up with: adjusted beta: 1.72 perpetual growth rate: 5.5% (nominal) 10 yr long rate: 6.5% risk premium (stock to 10 yr rate): 5.5% eps growth next five yrs: 19% 97 eps: 0.97 98 eps: 1.16 free cash flow to equity valuation of 10 yrs forward cash flows fair value: 18 5/8 which to me is $17-$20 overbought level: 21 1/4 which to me is 19 3/4 to 22 3/4(expected late 97/early 98 target) hence, my belief that $16 is good entry level..again given current info...if you think domestic business is crap then you need to project that in before establishing entry level this is given current expectations...of course, GEMS mgmt can sign a deal, pre-warn, etc which would change the valuation I didnt rationalized the results...it just came to this using expected top line growth and historical margin/expense levels....i am always amazed when the valuations come out like this....tons of assumptions and poof!...maybe everyone is on the same page...maybe cheers

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