Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 257 Bush 254
News from the Votemaster
Florida can't make up its collective mind. It's tied again. A new Insider Advantage poll puts the race there dead even, with Bush and Kerry each getting 46%. As a result, Kerry edges ahead nationally again, with 257 votes in the electoral college to Bush's 254. However, if we look at the strong+weak totals for each candidate, Bush leads 209 to 205, with 124 really too close to call. According to the latest polls, these are Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. However, in my judgement based on a number of recent polls rather than just the last one, Kerry will win New Jersey, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania. The others are true tossups. None are relative safe for Bush. If we count these three as Kerry wins, the "hard" totals are Kerry 246, Bush 209, still a tossup.
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